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Sunday 1 April 2018, 19:30 La Rosaleda Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
24% 31% 45%
Home win
23.8%
Draw
31.3%
Away win
44.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Malaga 23.8% 4.20
Draw 31.3% 3.19
Villarreal 44.8% 2.23

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.0% 1.16
Under 0.5 14.0% 7.13
Over 1.5 60.8% 1.65
Under 1.5 39.2% 2.55
Over 2.5 32.9% 3.04
Under 2.5 67.1% 1.49
Over 3.5 14.7% 6.81
Under 3.5 85.3% 1.17
Over 4.5 5.5% 18.29
Under 4.5 94.5% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.7% 2.52
No 60.3% 1.66

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Malaga / Draw 55.2% 1.81
Malaga / Villarreal 68.7% 1.46
Draw / Villarreal 76.2% 1.31

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.0
15.3
9.8
4.0
1.2
0.3
1
9.9
13.8
7.9
3.2
1.0
0.2
2
4.3
5.2
3.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
3
1.2
1.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.