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Sunday 18 March 2018, 19:30 Estadio de la Cerámica Full time
23% 33% 44%
Home win
22.7%
Draw
33.3%
Away win
44.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Villarreal 22.7% 4.41
Draw 33.3% 3.00
Atletico Madrid 44.0% 2.27

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 83.0% 1.20
Under 0.5 17.0% 5.89
Over 1.5 55.1% 1.82
Under 1.5 44.9% 2.22
Over 2.5 27.5% 3.64
Under 2.5 72.5% 1.38
Over 3.5 11.2% 8.94
Under 3.5 88.8% 1.13
Over 4.5 3.8% 26.45
Under 4.5 96.2% 1.04

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 34.9% 2.87
No 65.1% 1.54

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Villarreal / Draw 56.0% 1.79
Villarreal / Atletico Madrid 66.7% 1.50
Draw / Atletico Madrid 77.3% 1.29

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
17.0
17.2
9.9
3.7
1.0
0.2
1
10.8
13.5
7.1
2.6
0.7
0.2
2
4.1
4.5
2.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
3
1.0
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.