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Sunday 4 March 2018, 17:15 Camp Nou Full time
49% 29% 22%
Home win
49.1%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
22.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 49.1% 2.04
Draw 28.8% 3.48
Atletico Madrid 22.2% 4.51

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.9% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.1% 8.98
Over 1.5 66.8% 1.50
Under 1.5 33.2% 3.02
Over 2.5 39.5% 2.53
Under 2.5 60.5% 1.65
Over 3.5 19.4% 5.17
Under 3.5 80.6% 1.24
Over 4.5 8.0% 12.55
Under 4.5 92.0% 1.09

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 44.2% 2.26
No 55.8% 1.79

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 77.8% 1.28
Barcelona / Atletico Madrid 71.2% 1.40
Draw / Atletico Madrid 50.9% 1.96

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.1
8.2
3.8
1.1
0.2
0.0
1
13.9
13.3
5.4
1.5
0.3
0.1
2
10.3
8.8
3.8
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
4.8
4.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
1.7
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.