Sunday 4 March 2018, 17:15
Camp Nou
Full time
49%
29%
22%
Home win
49.1%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
22.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.8% | 3.48 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid | 22.2% | 4.51 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.9% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.1% | 8.98 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 33.2% | 3.02 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 19.4% | 5.17 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.0% | 12.55 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.0% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona / Draw | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Barcelona / Atletico Madrid | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw / Atletico Madrid | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.1
|
8.2
|
3.8
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
13.9
|
13.3
|
5.4
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.3
|
8.8
|
3.8
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
4.8
|
4.1
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.7
|
1.5
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Atletico Madrid
1-2
Barcelona
Dec 2025
Barcelona
3-1
Atletico Madrid
Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid
2-4
Barcelona
Dec 2024
Barcelona
1-2
Atletico Madrid
Mar 2024
Atletico Madrid
0-3
Barcelona
Dec 2023
Barcelona
1-0
Atletico Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.