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Sunday 18 February 2018, 17:15 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
61% 28% 12%
Home win
60.7%
Draw
27.8%
Away win
11.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 60.7% 1.65
Draw 27.8% 3.60
Athletic Club 11.5% 8.66

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 84.8% 1.18
Under 0.5 15.2% 6.58
Over 1.5 57.9% 1.73
Under 1.5 42.1% 2.38
Over 2.5 30.3% 3.30
Under 2.5 69.7% 1.44
Over 3.5 13.0% 7.71
Under 3.5 87.0% 1.15
Over 4.5 4.6% 21.66
Under 4.5 95.4% 1.05

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 29.7% 3.37
No 70.3% 1.42

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 88.5% 1.13
Atletico Madrid / Athletic Club 72.2% 1.38
Draw / Athletic Club 39.3% 2.54

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.2
6.4
1.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
1
20.5
10.7
2.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
2
15.3
7.3
1.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
3
7.4
3.5
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
2.7
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.