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Sunday 4 February 2018, 21:45 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
66% 22% 12%
Home win
65.6%
Draw
22.4%
Away win
12.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 65.6% 1.52
Draw 22.4% 4.46
Valencia 12.0% 8.36

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.5% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.5% 11.83
Over 1.5 72.7% 1.37
Under 1.5 27.3% 3.67
Over 2.5 46.7% 2.14
Under 2.5 53.3% 1.88
Over 3.5 25.2% 3.97
Under 3.5 74.8% 1.34
Over 4.5 11.5% 8.72
Under 4.5 88.5% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.9% 2.39
No 58.1% 1.72

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 88.0% 1.14
Atletico Madrid / Valencia 77.6% 1.29
Draw / Valencia 34.4% 2.91

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.5
4.7
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
14.1
10.4
3.3
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
13.8
9.2
3.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
8.6
5.8
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
4.0
2.7
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
1.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.