Saturday 23 December 2017, 17:15
Mestalla
Full time
42%
27%
31%
Home win
42.1%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
31.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.5% | 3.77 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 31.4% | 3.19 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.8% | 14.68 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 22.4% | 4.45 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 30.7% | 3.25 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 15.2% | 6.59 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| No | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia / Draw | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Valencia / Villarreal | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.8
|
7.1
|
5.0
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
8.5
|
12.6
|
7.6
|
3.2
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 2 |
7.0
|
9.0
|
5.8
|
2.5
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
3.5
|
4.5
|
2.9
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.3
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Villarreal
2-1
Valencia
Oct 2025
Valencia
0-2
Villarreal
Feb 2025
Villarreal
1-1
Valencia
Aug 2024
Valencia
1-1
Villarreal
Mar 2024
Villarreal
1-0
Valencia
Jan 2024
Valencia
3-1
Villarreal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.