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Wednesday 28 February 2018, 22:30 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
71% 22% 7%
Home win
71.1%
Draw
22.1%
Away win
6.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 71.1% 1.41
Draw 22.1% 4.53
Leganes 6.8% 14.63

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.6% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.4% 8.08
Over 1.5 63.2% 1.58
Under 1.5 36.8% 2.72
Over 2.5 35.8% 2.79
Under 2.5 64.2% 1.56
Over 3.5 16.7% 6.00
Under 3.5 83.3% 1.20
Over 4.5 6.5% 15.39
Under 4.5 93.5% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 26.4% 3.79
No 73.6% 1.36

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 93.2% 1.07
Atletico Madrid / Leganes 77.9% 1.28
Draw / Leganes 28.9% 3.46

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.4
4.0
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
20.4
8.3
1.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
18.3
6.9
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
10.7
4.0
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
4.7
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.