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Sunday 11 March 2018, 17:15 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
75% 17% 8%
Home win
75.0%
Draw
17.4%
Away win
7.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 75.0% 1.33
Draw 17.4% 5.76
Celta Vigo 7.6% 13.15

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.8% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.2% 16.06
Over 1.5 78.2% 1.28
Under 1.5 21.8% 4.60
Over 2.5 54.3% 1.84
Under 2.5 45.7% 2.19
Over 3.5 32.0% 3.13
Under 3.5 68.0% 1.47
Over 4.5 16.1% 6.22
Under 4.5 83.9% 1.19

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 40.4% 2.48
No 59.6% 1.68

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 92.4% 1.08
Atletico Madrid / Celta Vigo 82.6% 1.21
Draw / Celta Vigo 25.0% 4.01

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2
2.9
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
12.6
8.2
2.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
14.8
8.7
2.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
11.2
6.6
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
6.3
3.7
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
2.9
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.