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Saturday 1 April 2017, 21:45 La Rosaleda Full time
19% 25% 56%
Home win
18.8%
Draw
25.4%
Away win
55.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Malaga 18.8% 5.31
Draw 25.4% 3.94
Atletico Madrid 55.8% 1.79

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.7% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.3% 12.04
Over 1.5 73.4% 1.36
Under 1.5 26.6% 3.76
Over 2.5 47.5% 2.11
Under 2.5 52.5% 1.90
Over 3.5 25.8% 3.87
Under 3.5 74.2% 1.35
Over 4.5 11.9% 8.41
Under 4.5 88.1% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.5% 2.06
No 51.5% 1.94

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Malaga / Draw 44.2% 2.26
Malaga / Atletico Madrid 74.6% 1.34
Draw / Atletico Madrid 81.2% 1.23

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.3
12.2
10.9
6.1
2.6
0.9
1
6.1
12.1
9.6
5.4
2.3
0.8
2
3.0
5.0
4.2
2.4
1.0
0.3
3
0.9
1.5
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.