Sunday 5 March 2017, 17:15
Vicente Calderón
Full time
69%
19%
12%
Home win
68.9%
Draw
19.0%
Away win
12.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw | 19.0% | 5.26 | — | — |
| Valencia | 12.1% | 8.25 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.8% | 20.73 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 17.4% | 5.76 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.9% | 4.78 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| No | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Valencia | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Draw / Valencia | 31.1% | 3.21 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.8
|
3.2
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.3
|
9.0
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.2
|
9.7
|
4.2
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.5
|
7.4
|
3.2
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
4.9
|
4.2
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.2
|
1.9
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Valencia
0-2
Atletico Madrid
Dec 2025
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Valencia
Feb 2025
Valencia
0-3
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid
3-0
Valencia
Jan 2024
Atletico Madrid
2-0
Valencia
Sep 2023
Valencia
3-0
Atletico Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.