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Saturday 18 February 2017, 14:00 El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini Full time
15% 23% 63%
Home win
15.0%
Draw
22.5%
Away win
62.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon 15.0% 6.67
Draw 22.5% 4.44
Atletico Madrid 62.5% 1.60

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.2% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.8% 14.68
Over 1.5 77.2% 1.30
Under 1.5 22.8% 4.38
Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90
Under 2.5 47.4% 2.11
Over 3.5 30.4% 3.29
Under 3.5 69.6% 1.44
Over 4.5 14.9% 6.70
Under 4.5 85.1% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.3% 2.03
No 50.7% 1.97

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon / Draw 37.5% 2.67
Sporting Gijon / Atletico Madrid 77.5% 1.29
Draw / Atletico Madrid 85.0% 1.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.8
11.4
11.7
7.5
3.6
1.4
1
4.6
10.7
9.8
6.3
3.1
1.2
2
2.2
4.3
4.1
2.7
1.3
0.5
3
0.6
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
4
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sporting Gijon goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.