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Saturday 17 September 2016, 17:15 Vicente Calderón Full time
22% 12% 66%
Home win
21.6%
Draw
11.9%
Away win
66.4%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 21.6% 4.62
Draw 11.9% 8.39
Sporting Gijon 66.4% 1.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 100.0% 1.00
Under 0.5 0.0% 2,272.73
Over 1.5 99.8% 1.00
Under 1.5 0.2% 543.48
Over 2.5 99.0% 1.01
Under 2.5 1.0% 101.42
Over 3.5 96.8% 1.03
Under 3.5 3.2% 31.43
Over 4.5 92.2% 1.08
Under 4.5 7.8% 12.79

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 95.9% 1.04
No 4.1% 24.14

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 33.6% 2.98
Atletico Madrid / Sporting Gijon 88.1% 1.14
Draw / Sporting Gijon 78.4% 1.28

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
1
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.6
2.1
2.1
2
0.1
0.6
1.6
2.7
3.5
3.5
3
0.1
0.7
1.8
3.0
3.8
3.9
4
0.1
0.6
1.5
2.5
3.2
3.3
5
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.7
2.1
2.2
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.