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Saturday 4 February 2017, 19:30 Vicente Calderón Full time
74% 19% 7%
Home win
73.9%
Draw
18.9%
Away win
7.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 73.9% 1.35
Draw 18.9% 5.29
Leganes 7.2% 13.88

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.7% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.3% 12.09
Over 1.5 72.8% 1.37
Under 1.5 27.2% 3.67
Over 2.5 46.9% 2.13
Under 2.5 53.1% 1.88
Over 3.5 25.3% 3.95
Under 3.5 74.7% 1.34
Over 4.5 11.6% 8.64
Under 4.5 88.4% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 34.4% 2.91
No 65.6% 1.52

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 92.8% 1.08
Atletico Madrid / Leganes 81.1% 1.23
Draw / Leganes 26.1% 3.83

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.3
3.4
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
15.6
8.4
1.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
2
16.5
8.1
2.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
3
11.3
5.6
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
5.8
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
2.4
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.