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Saturday 17 December 2016, 17:15 Vicente Calderón Full time
60% 22% 18%
Home win
60.4%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
17.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 60.4% 1.66
Draw 21.8% 4.60
Las Palmas 17.8% 5.60

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.21
Over 1.5 82.5% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.5% 5.72
Over 2.5 60.5% 1.65
Under 2.5 39.5% 2.53
Over 3.5 38.2% 2.62
Under 3.5 61.8% 1.62
Over 4.5 20.7% 4.83
Under 4.5 79.3% 1.26

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.5% 1.74
No 42.5% 2.35

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 82.2% 1.22
Atletico Madrid / Las Palmas 78.2% 1.28
Draw / Las Palmas 39.6% 2.52

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
4.0
2.4
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
8.5
10.1
5.0
1.8
0.5
0.1
2
9.4
9.9
5.2
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
6.5
6.9
3.6
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
3.4
3.6
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
5
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.