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Saturday 3 December 2016, 21:45 Vicente Calderón Full time
58% 24% 18%
Home win
58.1%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
17.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 58.1% 1.72
Draw 24.4% 4.10
Espanyol 17.5% 5.71

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.7% 12.97
Over 1.5 74.9% 1.34
Under 1.5 25.1% 3.98
Over 2.5 49.4% 2.02
Under 2.5 50.6% 1.98
Over 3.5 27.5% 3.63
Under 3.5 72.5% 1.38
Over 4.5 13.0% 7.69
Under 4.5 87.0% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.1% 2.04
No 50.9% 1.96

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 82.5% 1.21
Atletico Madrid / Espanyol 75.6% 1.32
Draw / Espanyol 41.9% 2.39

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.7
5.5
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
11.9
11.6
4.8
1.4
0.3
0.1
2
11.1
9.7
4.3
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
6.6
5.8
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
2.9
2.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.