Saturday 29 October 2016, 19:30
Vicente Calderón
Full time
64%
23%
13%
Home win
64.2%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
12.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.2% | 4.30 | — | — |
| Malaga | 12.6% | 7.93 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.9% | 11.20 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.7% | 9.34 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
| No | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Malaga | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw / Malaga | 35.8% | 2.79 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.9
|
5.0
|
1.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
14.5
|
10.8
|
3.4
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.7
|
9.2
|
3.1
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.3
|
5.6
|
1.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
3.8
|
2.5
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.4
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Aug 2026
Atletico Madrid
2-0
Malaga
Feb 2018
Malaga
0-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2017
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Malaga
Apr 2017
Malaga
0-2
Atletico Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.