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Saturday 29 October 2016, 19:30 Vicente Calderón Full time
64% 23% 13%
Home win
64.2%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
12.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 64.2% 1.56
Draw 23.2% 4.30
Malaga 12.6% 7.93

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.1% 1.10
Under 0.5 8.9% 11.20
Over 1.5 71.6% 1.40
Under 1.5 28.4% 3.52
Over 2.5 45.3% 2.21
Under 2.5 54.7% 1.83
Over 3.5 24.0% 4.17
Under 3.5 76.0% 1.32
Over 4.5 10.7% 9.34
Under 4.5 89.3% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 41.6% 2.40
No 58.4% 1.71

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 87.4% 1.14
Atletico Madrid / Malaga 76.8% 1.30
Draw / Malaga 35.8% 2.79

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.9
5.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
14.5
10.8
3.4
0.8
0.1
0.0
2
13.7
9.2
3.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
8.3
5.6
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
3.8
2.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
1.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.