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Sunday 2 October 2016, 13:00 Mestalla Full time
Valencia
0–2
HT 0–0
Atletico Madrid
10% 15% 75%
Home win
10.3%
Draw
15.0%
Away win
74.7%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 10.3% 9.68 — —
Draw 15.0% 6.68 — —
Atletico Madrid 74.7% 1.34 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.6% 1.02 — —
Under 0.5 2.4% 41.24 — —
Over 1.5 90.3% 1.11 — —
Under 1.5 9.7% 10.30 — —
Over 2.5 74.4% 1.34 — —
Under 2.5 25.6% 3.90 — —
Over 3.5 54.3% 1.84 — —
Under 3.5 45.7% 2.19 — —
Over 4.5 34.8% 2.87 — —
Under 4.5 65.2% 1.53 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.8% 1.65 — —
No 39.2% 2.55 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 25.3% 3.95 — —
Valencia / Atletico Madrid 85.0% 1.18 — —
Draw / Atletico Madrid 89.7% 1.12 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.4
5.5
8.4
8.0
5.7
3.3
1
1.8
6.4
8.6
8.2
5.9
3.4
2
1.1
3.1
4.4
4.2
3.0
1.7
3
0.4
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.0
0.6
4
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Valencia
L L L W W
Atletico Madrid
D W W D W

Head to head

May 2026 Valencia 0-2 Atletico Madrid Dec 2025 Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia Feb 2025 Valencia 0-3 Atletico Madrid Sep 2024 Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia Jan 2024 Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia Sep 2023 Valencia 3-0 Atletico Madrid

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.