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Sunday 18 September 2016, 17:15 San Mamés Full time
Athletic Club
2–1
HT 2–1
Valencia
53% 19% 28%
Home win
53.4%
Draw
18.9%
Away win
27.7%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club 53.4% 1.87 — —
Draw 18.9% 5.29 — —
Valencia 27.7% 3.61 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.7% 1.01 — —
Under 0.5 1.3% 75.64 — —
Over 1.5 94.7% 1.06 — —
Under 1.5 5.3% 18.73 — —
Over 2.5 83.7% 1.19 — —
Under 2.5 16.3% 6.13 — —
Over 3.5 67.3% 1.48 — —
Under 3.5 32.7% 3.06 — —
Over 4.5 48.6% 2.06 — —
Under 4.5 51.4% 1.94 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 79.9% 1.25 — —
No 20.1% 4.97 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club / Draw 72.3% 1.38 — —
Athletic Club / Valencia 81.1% 1.23 — —
Draw / Valencia 46.6% 2.15 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.2
0.6
0.2
1
2.4
5.5
5.0
3.3
1.6
0.6
2
3.6
6.9
6.7
4.3
2.1
0.8
3
3.2
6.1
5.9
3.8
1.9
0.7
4
2.1
4.1
3.9
2.5
1.2
0.5
5
1.1
2.2
2.1
1.4
0.7
0.3
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Athletic Club
L L W
Valencia
L L L

Head to head

May 2026 Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia Sep 2025 Valencia 2-0 Athletic Club May 2025 Valencia 0-1 Athletic Club Aug 2024 Athletic Club 1-0 Valencia Jan 2024 Valencia 1-0 Athletic Club Oct 2023 Athletic Club 2-2 Valencia

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.