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Thursday 22 September 2016, 23:00 Mestalla Full time
2–1
HT 1–1
17% 18% 66%
Home win
16.5%
Draw
17.7%
Away win
65.8%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 16.5% 6.05
Draw 17.7% 5.66
Alaves 65.8% 1.52

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.8% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.2% 45.13
Over 1.5 91.2% 1.10
Under 1.5 8.8% 11.43
Over 2.5 76.2% 1.31
Under 2.5 23.8% 4.21
Over 3.5 56.7% 1.76
Under 3.5 43.3% 2.31
Over 4.5 37.2% 2.69
Under 4.5 62.8% 1.59

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 68.8% 1.45
No 31.2% 3.20

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 34.2% 2.92
Valencia / Alaves 82.3% 1.21
Draw / Alaves 83.5% 1.20

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.2
4.5
6.6
5.8
3.9
2.1
1
2.0
6.9
8.7
7.7
5.2
2.8
2
1.6
4.3
5.7
5.1
3.4
1.8
3
0.7
1.9
2.5
2.3
1.5
0.8
4
0.2
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.3
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.