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Saturday 10 September 2016, 21:30 Camp Nou Full time
1–2
HT 0–1
10% 45% 45%
Home win
10.2%
Draw
45.3%
Away win
44.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 10.2% 9.84
Draw 45.3% 2.21
Alaves 44.5% 2.25

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 61.8% 1.62
Under 0.5 38.2% 2.62
Over 1.5 25.8% 3.88
Under 1.5 74.2% 1.35
Over 2.5 7.5% 13.28
Under 2.5 92.5% 1.08
Over 3.5 1.7% 57.67
Under 3.5 98.3% 1.02
Over 4.5 0.3% 307.69
Under 4.5 99.7% 1.00

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 11.1% 9.00
No 88.9% 1.13

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 55.5% 1.80
Barcelona / Alaves 54.7% 1.83
Draw / Alaves 89.8% 1.11

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
38.2
27.7
10.5
2.6
0.5
0.1
1
8.3
6.8
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
2
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.