Skip to content
Σ SigmaGoal
ΕΛ EN
Sign in
Wednesday 21 September 2016, 23:00 Camp Nou Full time
Barcelona
1–1
HT 1–0
Atletico Madrid
41% 14% 45%
Home win
41.0%
Draw
13.7%
Away win
45.3%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 41.0% 2.44 — —
Draw 13.7% 7.33 — —
Atletico Madrid 45.3% 2.21 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 100.0% 1.00 — —
Under 0.5 0.0% 3,846.15 — —
Over 1.5 99.9% 1.00 — —
Under 1.5 0.1% 952.38 — —
Over 2.5 99.4% 1.01 — —
Under 2.5 0.6% 165.29 — —
Over 3.5 97.9% 1.02 — —
Under 3.5 2.1% 48.29 — —
Over 4.5 94.6% 1.06 — —
Under 4.5 5.4% 18.55 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 97.8% 1.02 — —
No 2.2% 46.34 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 54.7% 1.83 — —
Barcelona / Atletico Madrid 86.3% 1.16 — —
Draw / Atletico Madrid 59.0% 1.70 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
1
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.0
0.9
2
0.1
0.5
1.2
1.9
2.2
2.0
3
0.2
0.8
1.8
2.8
3.3
3.0
4
0.2
0.9
2.0
3.1
3.6
3.3
5
0.2
0.8
1.8
2.8
3.2
3.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Barcelona
W W L W
Atletico Madrid
D D W W

Head to head

Apr 2026 Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona Dec 2025 Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid Mar 2025 Atletico Madrid 2-4 Barcelona Dec 2024 Barcelona 1-2 Atletico Madrid Mar 2024 Atletico Madrid 0-3 Barcelona Dec 2023 Barcelona 1-0 Atletico Madrid

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.