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Saturday 16 September 2017, 21:45 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano Full time
70% 20% 9%
Home win
70.1%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
9.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 70.1% 1.43
Draw 20.5% 4.88
Malaga 9.4% 10.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.9% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.1% 12.32
Over 1.5 73.4% 1.36
Under 1.5 26.6% 3.76
Over 2.5 47.6% 2.10
Under 2.5 52.4% 1.91
Over 3.5 25.9% 3.85
Under 3.5 74.1% 1.35
Over 4.5 12.0% 8.36
Under 4.5 88.0% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 38.9% 2.57
No 61.1% 1.64

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 90.6% 1.10
Atletico Madrid / Malaga 79.5% 1.26
Draw / Malaga 29.9% 3.35

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.1
3.9
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
1
14.6
9.4
2.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
15.0
8.8
2.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
10.0
5.9
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
5.0
2.9
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
2.0
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.