Saturday 16 September 2017, 21:45
Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
Full time
70%
20%
9%
Home win
70.1%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
9.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | — | — |
| Malaga | 9.4% | 10.65 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.9% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.1% | 12.32 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 25.9% | 3.85 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 12.0% | 8.36 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 88.0% | 1.14 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
| No | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Malaga | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Draw / Malaga | 29.9% | 3.35 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.1
|
3.9
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
14.6
|
9.4
|
2.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
15.0
|
8.8
|
2.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
10.0
|
5.9
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.0
|
2.9
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.0
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Aug 2026
Atletico Madrid
2-0
Malaga
Feb 2018
Malaga
0-1
Atletico Madrid
Apr 2017
Malaga
0-2
Atletico Madrid
Oct 2016
Atletico Madrid
4-2
Malaga
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.