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Saturday 9 September 2017, 17:15 Mestalla Full time
20% 25% 56%
Home win
19.5%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
55.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 19.5% 5.13
Draw 24.9% 4.02
Atletico Madrid 55.6% 1.80

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.5% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.5% 13.38
Over 1.5 75.6% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.4% 4.10
Over 2.5 50.3% 1.99
Under 2.5 49.7% 2.01
Over 3.5 28.3% 3.53
Under 3.5 71.7% 1.40
Over 4.5 13.5% 7.39
Under 4.5 86.5% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.0% 1.96
No 49.0% 2.04

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 44.4% 2.25
Valencia / Atletico Madrid 75.1% 1.33
Draw / Atletico Madrid 80.5% 1.24

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.5
11.2
10.4
6.0
2.6
0.9
1
5.7
11.9
9.8
5.7
2.5
0.9
2
3.0
5.3
4.6
2.7
1.2
0.4
3
0.9
1.7
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.1
4
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.