Sunday 21 May 2017, 17:45
Mestalla
Full time
30%
29%
42%
Home win
29.9%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
41.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 29.9% | 3.34 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.6% | 3.50 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.4% | 10.67 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 28.9% | 3.46 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 4.30 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.3% | 9.74 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| No | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia / Draw | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Valencia / Villarreal | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.4
|
10.8
|
7.8
|
3.5
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
8.7
|
13.6
|
8.6
|
3.9
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
5.3
|
7.1
|
4.8
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.9
|
2.6
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.5
|
0.7
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Villarreal
2-1
Valencia
Oct 2025
Valencia
0-2
Villarreal
Feb 2025
Villarreal
1-1
Valencia
Aug 2024
Valencia
1-1
Villarreal
Mar 2024
Villarreal
1-0
Valencia
Jan 2024
Valencia
3-1
Villarreal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.