Skip to content
Saturday 6 May 2017, 19:30 Camp Nou Full time
61% 23% 17%
Home win
60.7%
Draw
22.7%
Away win
16.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 60.7% 1.65
Draw 22.7% 4.41
Villarreal 16.6% 6.03

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.7% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.3% 15.86
Over 1.5 78.6% 1.27
Under 1.5 21.4% 4.67
Over 2.5 54.6% 1.83
Under 2.5 45.4% 2.20
Over 3.5 32.3% 3.10
Under 3.5 67.7% 1.48
Over 4.5 16.3% 6.15
Under 4.5 83.7% 1.19

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.2% 1.92
No 47.8% 2.09

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 83.4% 1.20
Barcelona / Villarreal 77.3% 1.29
Draw / Villarreal 39.3% 2.55

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.3
4.6
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
10.5
10.8
4.7
1.4
0.3
0.1
2
10.8
9.9
4.6
1.4
0.3
0.1
3
7.0
6.4
3.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
3.4
3.1
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.3
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.