Saturday 6 May 2017, 19:30
Camp Nou
Full time
61%
23%
17%
Home win
60.7%
Draw
22.7%
Away win
16.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 16.6% | 6.03 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.3% | 15.86 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 4.67 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 32.3% | 3.10 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 16.3% | 6.15 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| No | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona / Draw | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Barcelona / Villarreal | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.3
|
4.6
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.5
|
10.8
|
4.7
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.8
|
9.9
|
4.6
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
7.0
|
6.4
|
3.0
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
3.4
|
3.1
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.3
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Barcelona
4-1
Villarreal
Dec 2025
Villarreal
0-2
Barcelona
May 2025
Barcelona
2-3
Villarreal
Sep 2024
Villarreal
1-5
Barcelona
Jan 2024
Barcelona
3-5
Villarreal
Aug 2023
Villarreal
3-4
Barcelona
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.