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Sunday 23 April 2017, 21:45 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
44% 22% 34%
Home win
44.1%
Draw
21.5%
Away win
34.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 44.1% 2.27
Draw 21.5% 4.65
Barcelona 34.3% 2.91

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.7% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.3% 43.12
Over 1.5 91.1% 1.10
Under 1.5 8.9% 11.25
Over 2.5 75.8% 1.32
Under 2.5 24.2% 4.14
Over 3.5 56.2% 1.78
Under 3.5 43.8% 2.28
Over 4.5 36.7% 2.73
Under 4.5 63.3% 1.58

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 74.7% 1.34
No 25.3% 3.95

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 65.7% 1.52
Real Madrid / Barcelona 78.5% 1.27
Draw / Barcelona 55.9% 1.79

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.3
3.0
3.2
2.0
0.9
0.3
1
3.5
7.8
6.9
4.3
2.0
0.7
2
4.2
7.8
7.3
4.5
2.1
0.8
3
3.0
5.5
5.1
3.2
1.5
0.6
4
1.6
2.9
2.7
1.7
0.8
0.3
5
0.7
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.