Sunday 19 March 2017, 21:45
Camp Nou
Full time
87%
9%
4%
Home win
86.9%
Draw
8.7%
Away win
4.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Draw | 8.7% | 11.43 | — | — |
| Valencia | 4.3% | 23.14 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.6% | 1.01 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 1.4% | 71.23 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 93.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 6.3% | 15.95 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 18.2% | 5.50 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| No | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona / Draw | 95.7% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Barcelona / Valencia | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Draw / Valencia | 13.1% | 7.65 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.4
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
4.1
|
3.7
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
7.8
|
6.4
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.4
|
7.7
|
3.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
8.5
|
6.9
|
2.8
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
6.1
|
5.0
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Valencia
3-1
Barcelona
Sep 2025
Barcelona
6-0
Valencia
Jan 2025
Barcelona
7-1
Valencia
Aug 2024
Valencia
1-2
Barcelona
Apr 2024
Barcelona
4-2
Valencia
Dec 2023
Valencia
1-1
Barcelona
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.