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Wednesday 1 March 2017, 20:30 Camp Nou Full time
91% 6% 3%
Home win
91.0%
Draw
6.4%
Away win
2.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 91.0% 1.10
Draw 6.4% 15.56
Sporting Gijon 2.6% 38.40

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.9% 1.01
Under 0.5 1.1% 87.18
Over 1.5 94.6% 1.06
Under 1.5 5.4% 18.56
Over 2.5 83.9% 1.19
Under 2.5 16.1% 6.22
Over 3.5 67.7% 1.48
Under 3.5 32.3% 3.09
Over 4.5 48.9% 2.04
Under 4.5 51.1% 1.96

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.9% 2.05
No 51.1% 1.96

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 97.4% 1.03
Barcelona / Sporting Gijon 93.6% 1.07
Draw / Sporting Gijon 9.0% 11.08

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
3.7
2.8
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
7.6
5.2
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
10.0
6.9
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
9.8
6.8
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
7.7
5.3
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.