Skip to content
Sunday 26 February 2017, 17:15 Vicente Calderón Full time
33% 26% 41%
Home win
32.7%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
40.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 32.7% 3.06
Draw 26.5% 3.78
Barcelona 40.9% 2.45

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.4% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.6% 15.04
Over 1.5 78.0% 1.28
Under 1.5 22.0% 4.54
Over 2.5 53.6% 1.87
Under 2.5 46.4% 2.16
Over 3.5 31.3% 3.19
Under 3.5 68.7% 1.46
Over 4.5 15.6% 6.41
Under 4.5 84.4% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.7% 1.73
No 42.3% 2.36

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 59.1% 1.69
Atletico Madrid / Barcelona 73.5% 1.36
Draw / Barcelona 67.3% 1.48

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.6
8.2
6.7
3.4
1.3
0.4
1
7.1
12.5
8.9
4.4
1.7
0.5
2
5.2
7.8
5.8
2.9
1.1
0.3
3
2.3
3.4
2.6
1.3
0.5
0.1
4
0.8
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.