Saturday 28 January 2017, 17:15
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Full time
23%
33%
44%
Home win
23.1%
Draw
32.9%
Away win
44.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 23.1% | 4.32 | — | — |
| Draw | 32.9% | 3.04 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid | 44.0% | 2.28 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 16.3% | 6.12 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 11.8% | 8.44 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.1% | 24.48 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.9% | 1.04 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35.9% | 2.78 | — | — |
| No | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves / Draw | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Alaves / Atletico Madrid | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Draw / Atletico Madrid | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
16.4
|
16.7
|
9.8
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
10.7
|
13.6
|
7.2
|
2.7
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
4.2
|
4.7
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
1.0
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Alaves
Aug 2025
Alaves
1-1
Atletico Madrid
May 2025
Alaves
0-0
Atletico Madrid
Nov 2024
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Alaves
Apr 2024
Alaves
2-0
Atletico Madrid
Oct 2023
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Alaves
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.