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Sunday 12 February 2017, 21:45 Vicente Calderón Full time
64% 21% 14%
Home win
64.3%
Draw
21.4%
Away win
14.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 64.3% 1.56
Draw 21.4% 4.68
Celta Vigo 14.3% 6.98

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.0% 1.06
Under 0.5 6.0% 16.76
Over 1.5 79.4% 1.26
Under 1.5 20.6% 4.86
Over 2.5 55.9% 1.79
Under 2.5 44.1% 2.27
Over 3.5 33.5% 2.99
Under 3.5 66.5% 1.50
Over 4.5 17.2% 5.83
Under 4.5 82.8% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.1% 1.96
No 48.9% 2.05

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 85.7% 1.17
Atletico Madrid / Celta Vigo 78.6% 1.27
Draw / Celta Vigo 35.7% 2.80

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.0
4.1
2.0
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
10.5
10.2
4.2
1.2
0.3
0.0
2
11.4
9.9
4.3
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
7.8
6.7
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
4.0
3.5
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.6
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.