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Saturday 24 September 2016, 17:15 El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini Full time
8% 8% 84%
Home win
8.5%
Draw
8.0%
Away win
83.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon 8.5% 11.80
Draw 8.0% 12.46
Barcelona 83.5% 1.20

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 99.9% 1.00
Under 0.5 0.1% 970.87
Over 1.5 99.5% 1.00
Under 1.5 0.5% 210.08
Over 2.5 97.8% 1.02
Under 2.5 2.2% 45.29
Over 3.5 93.6% 1.07
Under 3.5 6.4% 15.66
Over 4.5 85.9% 1.16
Under 4.5 14.1% 7.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 87.7% 1.14
No 12.3% 8.15

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon / Draw 16.5% 6.06
Sporting Gijon / Barcelona 92.0% 1.09
Draw / Barcelona 91.5% 1.09

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.1
0.3
0.9
1.5
2.0
2.1
1
0.1
0.7
1.8
3.2
4.3
4.5
2
0.1
0.7
2.0
3.4
4.5
4.8
3
0.1
0.5
1.4
2.4
3.2
3.4
4
0.1
0.3
0.7
1.3
1.7
1.8
5
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.8
Rows: Sporting Gijon goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.