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Wednesday 22 February 2017, 19:45 Mestalla Full time
14% 17% 69%
Home win
13.6%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
69.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 13.6% 7.37
Draw 17.3% 5.76
Real Madrid 69.1% 1.45

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.2% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.8% 35.15
Over 1.5 89.0% 1.12
Under 1.5 11.0% 9.08
Over 2.5 71.8% 1.39
Under 2.5 28.2% 3.54
Over 3.5 51.0% 1.96
Under 3.5 49.0% 2.04
Over 4.5 31.7% 3.16
Under 4.5 68.3% 1.46

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.5% 1.60
No 37.5% 2.67

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 30.9% 3.23
Valencia / Real Madrid 82.7% 1.21
Draw / Real Madrid 86.4% 1.16

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.8
5.9
8.3
7.2
4.7
2.4
1
2.3
7.4
9.2
8.0
5.2
2.7
2
1.5
3.9
5.1
4.4
2.9
1.5
3
0.6
1.4
1.9
1.6
1.1
0.6
4
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.