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Sunday 29 January 2017, 21:45 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
69% 18% 13%
Home win
68.9%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
13.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 68.9% 1.45
Draw 17.8% 5.63
Real Sociedad 13.3% 7.51

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.8% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.2% 30.84
Over 1.5 87.6% 1.14
Under 1.5 12.4% 8.09
Over 2.5 69.3% 1.44
Under 2.5 30.7% 3.26
Over 3.5 48.0% 2.08
Under 3.5 52.0% 1.92
Over 4.5 28.9% 3.46
Under 4.5 71.1% 1.41

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.3% 1.66
No 39.7% 2.52

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 86.7% 1.15
Real Madrid / Real Sociedad 82.2% 1.22
Draw / Real Sociedad 31.1% 3.22

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.2
2.5
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
6.6
7.9
3.9
1.4
0.4
0.1
2
8.9
9.4
4.9
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
7.5
7.9
4.1
1.5
0.4
0.1
4
4.7
5.0
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.1
5
2.4
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.