Saturday 21 January 2017, 17:15
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
82%
12%
7%
Home win
81.7%
Draw
11.5%
Away win
6.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.5% | 8.69 | — | — |
| Malaga | 6.8% | 14.80 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.2% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 1.8% | 56.24 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 92.5% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 7.5% | 13.26 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 21.1% | 4.75 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| No | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Malaga | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Draw / Malaga | 18.3% | 5.48 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.8
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
4.6
|
4.8
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
8.0
|
7.5
|
3.5
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.8
|
8.1
|
3.8
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
7.2
|
6.6
|
3.1
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.7
|
4.3
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.