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Saturday 25 November 2017, 17:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
3–2
HT 2–1
81% 13% 6%
Home win
80.6%
Draw
12.9%
Away win
6.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 80.6% 1.24
Draw 12.9% 7.74
Malaga 6.5% 15.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.0% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.0% 33.43
Over 1.5 88.1% 1.14
Under 1.5 11.9% 8.38
Over 2.5 70.3% 1.42
Under 2.5 29.7% 3.36
Over 3.5 49.1% 2.04
Under 3.5 50.9% 1.97
Over 4.5 29.9% 3.34
Under 4.5 70.1% 1.43

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.9% 2.00
No 50.1% 2.00

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 93.6% 1.07
Real Madrid / Malaga 87.1% 1.15
Draw / Malaga 19.4% 5.16

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.0
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
7.3
6.0
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
11.0
8.2
3.1
0.8
0.1
0.0
3
10.6
7.9
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
7.7
5.7
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
4.4
3.3
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.