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Saturday 21 October 2017, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
88% 8% 3%
Home win
88.1%
Draw
8.4%
Away win
3.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 88.1% 1.14
Draw 8.4% 11.89
Malaga 3.5% 28.62

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.2% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.8% 56.18
Over 1.5 92.2% 1.09
Under 1.5 7.8% 12.76
Over 2.5 78.4% 1.28
Under 2.5 21.6% 4.64
Over 3.5 59.7% 1.68
Under 3.5 40.3% 2.48
Over 4.5 40.2% 2.49
Under 4.5 59.8% 1.67

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.5% 2.11
No 52.5% 1.90

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 96.5% 1.04
Barcelona / Malaga 91.6% 1.09
Draw / Malaga 11.9% 8.40

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
5.2
3.9
1.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
2
9.5
6.4
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
11.1
7.4
2.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
9.7
6.5
2.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
6.8
4.5
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.