Saturday 21 October 2017, 21:45
Camp Nou
Full time
88%
8%
3%
Home win
88.1%
Draw
8.4%
Away win
3.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Draw | 8.4% | 11.89 | — | — |
| Malaga | 3.5% | 28.62 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.2% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 1.8% | 56.18 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 92.2% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 7.8% | 12.76 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 21.6% | 4.64 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
| No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona / Draw | 96.5% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Barcelona / Malaga | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Draw / Malaga | 11.9% | 8.40 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.8
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
5.2
|
3.9
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
9.5
|
6.4
|
2.1
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
11.1
|
7.4
|
2.5
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
9.7
|
6.5
|
2.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
6.8
|
4.5
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.