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Sunday 15 April 2018, 21:45 La Rosaleda Full time
1–2
HT 0–1
14% 20% 66%
Home win
14.2%
Draw
20.1%
Away win
65.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Malaga 14.2% 7.02
Draw 20.1% 4.97
Real Madrid 65.7% 1.52

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.2% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.8% 20.72
Over 1.5 82.7% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.3% 5.79
Over 2.5 60.9% 1.64
Under 2.5 39.1% 2.56
Over 3.5 38.6% 2.59
Under 3.5 61.4% 1.63
Over 4.5 21.0% 4.76
Under 4.5 79.0% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.8% 1.83
No 45.2% 2.21

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Malaga / Draw 34.3% 2.91
Malaga / Real Madrid 79.9% 1.25
Draw / Real Madrid 85.8% 1.17

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.8
8.9
10.5
7.7
4.3
1.9
1
3.5
9.4
9.8
7.2
4.0
1.8
2
1.9
4.2
4.6
3.4
1.9
0.8
3
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.1
0.6
0.3
4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.