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Sunday 8 April 2018, 17:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
39% 28% 33%
Home win
39.3%
Draw
28.0%
Away win
32.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 39.3% 2.54
Draw 28.0% 3.57
Atletico Madrid 32.7% 3.06

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.6% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.4% 11.94
Over 1.5 73.5% 1.36
Under 1.5 26.5% 3.78
Over 2.5 47.5% 2.10
Under 2.5 52.5% 1.91
Over 3.5 25.8% 3.87
Under 3.5 74.2% 1.35
Over 4.5 11.9% 8.40
Under 4.5 88.1% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.0% 1.89
No 47.0% 2.13

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 67.3% 1.49
Real Madrid / Atletico Madrid 72.0% 1.39
Draw / Atletico Madrid 60.7% 1.65

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.4
8.5
5.6
2.3
0.7
0.2
1
9.6
13.3
7.7
3.1
0.9
0.2
2
7.0
8.5
5.2
2.1
0.6
0.2
3
3.2
3.9
2.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.