Monday 16 January 2017, 21:45
La Rosaleda
Full time
41%
23%
36%
Home win
41.3%
Draw
23.1%
Away win
35.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.1% | 4.32 | — | — |
| Real Sociedad | 35.5% | 2.81 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.6% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.4% | 29.24 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 12.5% | 7.97 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | 3.21 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| No | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga / Draw | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Malaga / Real Sociedad | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw / Real Sociedad | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.4
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
2.4
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
4.8
|
9.6
|
7.7
|
4.4
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
| 2 |
4.9
|
8.3
|
7.1
|
4.0
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
| 3 |
3.0
|
5.1
|
4.4
|
2.5
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
| 4 |
1.4
|
2.4
|
2.0
|
1.1
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
| 5 |
0.5
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2018
Malaga
2-0
Real Sociedad
Dec 2017
Real Sociedad
0-2
Malaga
May 2017
Real Sociedad
2-2
Malaga
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.