Skip to content
Sunday 4 December 2016, 21:45 Mestalla Full time
2–2
HT 2–1
32% 24% 45%
Home win
31.9%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
44.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 31.9% 3.14
Draw 23.6% 4.23
Malaga 44.5% 2.25

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.0% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.0% 25.02
Over 1.5 85.6% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.4% 6.96
Over 2.5 65.6% 1.53
Under 2.5 34.4% 2.90
Over 3.5 43.6% 2.29
Under 3.5 56.4% 1.77
Over 4.5 25.1% 3.98
Under 4.5 74.9% 1.34

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 66.6% 1.50
No 33.4% 2.99

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 55.5% 1.80
Valencia / Malaga 76.4% 1.31
Draw / Malaga 68.1% 1.47

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.0
5.7
5.8
3.6
1.6
0.6
1
4.7
10.2
8.9
5.5
2.5
0.9
2
4.0
7.4
6.8
4.2
1.9
0.7
3
2.1
3.8
3.5
2.1
1.0
0.4
4
0.8
1.5
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.1
5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.