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Saturday 22 October 2016, 17:15 Mestalla Full time
2–3
HT 0–1
15% 13% 71%
Home win
15.4%
Draw
13.3%
Away win
71.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 15.4% 6.48
Draw 13.3% 7.50
Barcelona 71.2% 1.40

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 99.5% 1.01
Under 0.5 0.5% 196.08
Over 1.5 97.8% 1.02
Under 1.5 2.2% 44.98
Over 2.5 91.9% 1.09
Under 2.5 8.1% 12.41
Over 3.5 81.3% 1.23
Under 3.5 18.7% 5.34
Over 4.5 66.2% 1.51
Under 4.5 33.8% 2.96

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 83.1% 1.20
No 16.9% 5.91

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 28.8% 3.48
Valencia / Barcelona 86.7% 1.15
Draw / Barcelona 84.6% 1.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.5
1.2
2.5
3.1
2.9
2.2
1
0.5
2.7
4.7
5.9
5.5
4.1
2
0.6
2.4
4.5
5.6
5.2
3.9
3
0.4
1.5
2.8
3.5
3.3
2.5
4
0.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.2
5
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.4
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.