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Sunday 16 October 2016, 19:30 El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini Full time
Sporting Gijon
1–2
HT 1–1
Valencia
41% 21% 39%
Home win
40.8%
Draw
20.7%
Away win
38.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon 40.8% 2.45 — —
Draw 20.7% 4.84 — —
Valencia 38.6% 2.59 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.3% 1.02 — —
Under 0.5 1.7% 57.57 — —
Over 1.5 93.2% 1.07 — —
Under 1.5 6.8% 14.64 — —
Over 2.5 80.2% 1.25 — —
Under 2.5 19.8% 5.06 — —
Over 3.5 62.2% 1.61 — —
Under 3.5 37.8% 2.65 — —
Over 4.5 42.9% 2.33 — —
Under 4.5 57.1% 1.75 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 78.4% 1.28 — —
No 21.6% 4.63 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sporting Gijon / Draw 61.4% 1.63 — —
Sporting Gijon / Valencia 79.3% 1.26 — —
Draw / Valencia 59.2% 1.69 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.7
2.5
3.1
2.2
1.1
0.5
1
2.6
6.7
6.7
4.7
2.5
1.1
2
3.2
6.8
7.2
5.1
2.7
1.2
3
2.3
5.0
5.3
3.7
2.0
0.8
4
1.3
2.7
2.9
2.0
1.1
0.5
5
0.6
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.2
Rows: Sporting Gijon goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Sporting Gijon
W L L L L
Valencia
L L W W L

Head to head

Mar 2017 Valencia 1-1 Sporting Gijon

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.