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Saturday 11 March 2017, 14:00 Mestalla Full time
Valencia
1–1
HT 0–0
Sporting Gijon
59% 21% 20%
Home win
59.3%
Draw
21.1%
Away win
19.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia 59.3% 1.69 — —
Draw 21.1% 4.73 — —
Sporting Gijon 19.6% 5.11 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.1% 1.04 — —
Under 0.5 3.9% 25.66 — —
Over 1.5 85.8% 1.17 — —
Under 1.5 14.2% 7.02 — —
Over 2.5 65.9% 1.52 — —
Under 2.5 34.1% 2.93 — —
Over 3.5 44.0% 2.27 — —
Under 3.5 56.0% 1.79 — —
Over 4.5 25.4% 3.93 — —
Under 4.5 74.6% 1.34 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.6% 1.60 — —
No 37.4% 2.68 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Valencia / Draw 80.4% 1.24 — —
Valencia / Sporting Gijon 78.9% 1.27 — —
Draw / Sporting Gijon 40.7% 2.46 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.9
3.5
2.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
1
6.8
9.4
5.3
2.1
0.6
0.2
2
8.1
9.7
5.8
2.3
0.7
0.2
3
5.9
7.1
4.3
1.7
0.5
0.1
4
3.2
3.9
2.3
0.9
0.3
0.1
5
1.4
1.7
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Valencia
W W L W L
Sporting Gijon
W L D L L

Head to head

Oct 2016 Sporting Gijon 1-2 Valencia

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.