Skip to content
Sunday 27 November 2016, 21:45 Anoeta Full time
42% 24% 34%
Home win
41.9%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
34.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Sociedad 41.9% 2.39
Draw 23.8% 4.21
Barcelona 34.4% 2.91

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.0% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.0% 25.16
Over 1.5 85.7% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.3% 7.00
Over 2.5 65.7% 1.52
Under 2.5 34.3% 2.92
Over 3.5 43.8% 2.28
Under 3.5 56.2% 1.78
Over 4.5 25.3% 3.96
Under 4.5 74.7% 1.34

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 67.0% 1.49
No 33.0% 3.03

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Sociedad / Draw 65.6% 1.52
Real Sociedad / Barcelona 76.2% 1.31
Draw / Barcelona 58.1% 1.72

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.0
4.9
4.4
2.3
0.9
0.3
1
5.5
10.3
7.8
4.1
1.7
0.5
2
5.4
8.6
6.9
3.7
1.5
0.5
3
3.2
5.1
4.1
2.2
0.9
0.3
4
1.4
2.3
1.8
1.0
0.4
0.1
5
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.