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Saturday 26 November 2016, 17:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
92% 6% 2%
Home win
91.9%
Draw
5.9%
Away win
2.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 91.9% 1.09
Draw 5.9% 17.02
Sporting Gijon 2.3% 43.99

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.9% 1.01
Under 0.5 1.1% 93.63
Over 1.5 94.9% 1.05
Under 1.5 5.1% 19.64
Over 2.5 84.6% 1.18
Under 2.5 15.4% 6.51
Over 3.5 68.8% 1.45
Under 3.5 31.2% 3.21
Over 4.5 50.2% 1.99
Under 4.5 49.8% 2.01

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.7% 2.10
No 52.3% 1.91

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 97.7% 1.02
Real Madrid / Sporting Gijon 94.1% 1.06
Draw / Sporting Gijon 8.1% 12.27

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
3.6
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
7.5
4.9
1.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
10.0
6.6
2.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
10.1
6.7
2.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
8.2
5.4
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.