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Sunday 23 October 2016, 21:45 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
66% 19% 15%
Home win
65.7%
Draw
19.4%
Away win
15.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 65.7% 1.52
Draw 19.4% 5.17
Athletic Club 15.0% 6.68

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.1% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.9% 25.80
Over 1.5 85.7% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.3% 6.98
Over 2.5 65.8% 1.52
Under 2.5 34.2% 2.92
Over 3.5 43.9% 2.28
Under 3.5 56.1% 1.78
Over 4.5 25.4% 3.94
Under 4.5 74.6% 1.34

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.2% 1.69
No 40.8% 2.45

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 85.0% 1.18
Real Madrid / Athletic Club 80.7% 1.24
Draw / Athletic Club 34.3% 2.91

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.9
3.0
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.0
1
7.4
8.8
4.3
1.5
0.4
0.1
2
9.3
9.7
5.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
7.2
7.6
4.0
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
4.2
4.4
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
2.0
2.1
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.