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Sunday 2 October 2016, 17:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
1–1
HT 1–1
53% 25% 22%
Home win
53.0%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
21.8%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 53.0% 1.89
Draw 25.2% 3.97
Eibar 21.8% 4.58

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.05
Over 1.5 76.6% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.4% 4.27
Over 2.5 51.7% 1.93
Under 2.5 48.3% 2.07
Over 3.5 29.5% 3.39
Under 3.5 70.5% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.4% 6.97
Under 4.5 85.6% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.3% 1.88
No 46.7% 2.14

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 78.2% 1.28
Real Madrid / Eibar 74.8% 1.34
Draw / Eibar 47.0% 2.13

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
5.9
3.4
1.2
0.3
0.1
1
10.4
12.0
5.8
2.0
0.5
0.1
2
9.5
9.7
5.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
5.4
5.6
2.9
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
2.3
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Eibar goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.