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Wednesday 21 September 2016, 21:00 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
Real Madrid
1–1
HT 0–1
Villarreal
31% 25% 44%
Home win
30.8%
Draw
24.8%
Away win
44.4%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 30.8% 3.25 — —
Draw 24.8% 4.03 — —
Villarreal 44.4% 2.25 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.9% 1.05 — —
Under 0.5 5.1% 19.58 — —
Over 1.5 82.3% 1.22 — —
Under 1.5 17.7% 5.65 — —
Over 2.5 60.1% 1.66 — —
Under 2.5 39.9% 2.50 — —
Over 3.5 37.7% 2.65 — —
Under 3.5 62.3% 1.61 — —
Over 4.5 20.3% 4.92 — —
Under 4.5 79.7% 1.26 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.3% 1.60 — —
No 37.7% 2.65 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 55.6% 1.80 — —
Real Madrid / Villarreal 75.2% 1.33 — —
Draw / Villarreal 69.2% 1.45 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.1
7.0
6.5
3.7
1.6
0.5
1
5.6
11.3
9.1
5.2
2.2
0.8
2
4.4
7.5
6.4
3.6
1.6
0.5
3
2.0
3.5
3.0
1.7
0.7
0.2
4
0.7
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
5
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Real Madrid
W W W W
Villarreal
D D W W

Head to head

Jan 2026 Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid Oct 2025 Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal Mar 2025 Villarreal 1-2 Real Madrid Oct 2024 Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal May 2024 Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid Dec 2023 Real Madrid 4-1 Villarreal

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.