Skip to content
Σ SigmaGoal
ΕΛ EN
Sign in
Saturday 10 September 2016, 17:00 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
Real Madrid
5–2
HT 3–0
Osasuna
38% 17% 45%
Home win
37.6%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
45.1%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 37.6% 2.66 — —
Draw 17.3% 5.79 — —
Osasuna 45.1% 2.22 — —

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 99.5% 1.00 — —
Under 0.5 0.5% 211.42 — —
Over 1.5 98.0% 1.02 — —
Under 1.5 2.0% 50.53 — —
Over 2.5 92.6% 1.08 — —
Under 2.5 7.4% 13.56 — —
Over 3.5 82.6% 1.21 — —
Under 3.5 17.4% 5.74 — —
Over 4.5 68.1% 1.47 — —
Under 4.5 31.9% 3.13 — —

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 89.2% 1.12 — —
No 10.8% 9.22 — —

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 54.9% 1.82 — —
Real Madrid / Osasuna 82.7% 1.21 — —
Draw / Osasuna 62.4% 1.60 — —

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.5
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.6
1
0.7
2.8
3.9
3.9
2.9
1.8
2
1.2
3.6
5.4
5.4
4.0
2.4
3
1.1
3.3
5.0
5.0
3.7
2.2
4
0.8
2.3
3.4
3.4
2.6
1.5
5
0.4
1.3
1.9
1.9
1.4
0.9
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Real Madrid
W W
Osasuna
D L

Head to head

Feb 2026 Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid Aug 2025 Real Madrid 1-0 Osasuna Feb 2025 Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid Nov 2024 Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna Mar 2024 Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid Oct 2023 Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.